The forecast IHME released on March 26, 2020, was geared to helping hospitals plan for a surge in demand for their resources (e.g., beds, ICUs, ventilators) to fight COVID-19. With many locations seeing a second peak of COVID-19 infections and deaths, attention is now on how best to prevent and manage a resurgence of the disease while safely enabling people to get back to work and school. To help with policy decisions, IHME is now providing a reference scenario and two additional forecasts for daily and total deaths. In this seminar, we will provide and Introduction to the IHME model, its limitations, projections for our region, how can the countries use these estimates, and looking ahead.
1. The main drivers of the increased cases and deaths?
2. How we could control this pandemic
3. The scenarios for this coming winter and the impact of seasonality