The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) uses a hybrid modeling approach to generate Covid19 forecasts. The model incorporates elements of statistical and disease transmission models and is grounded primarily in real-time data instead of assumptions about how the disease will spread. The model accounts for several variables including mobility, mask wearing, testing, and the spread of the new variants. New variants have the potential to increase transmission, escape immunity from previous infections, and reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines. Our long-term projections show that there is a potential of a rise in cases and deaths due to the new variants. The future of the pandemic depends on the behavioral response in terms of vaccine confidence, mask wearing, and avoidance of situations that pose a high-risk for transmission.
1. The seminar will help understand the future scenarios for the spread of the virus
2. The seminar will allow attendees to understand how IHME models covid19
3. The seminar will explain the impact of the new variants on the pandemic and how we can best respond to their challenge